Boerne & Fair Oaks Ranch Housing Update (August 2025)

Sep 18

If you live in Boerne (78006) or Fair Oaks Ranch (78015), you’re watching two related—but different—markets inside Boerne ISD. Both behave differently than the broader San Antonio–New Braunfels metro and the Texas statewide picture. This read translates the numbers into plain English, explains why the market has felt “sticky,” and lays out what the Federal Reserve’s recent moves could mean for Spring 2026. 🏡

Local Market: 78015, 78006, and Boerne ISD

Fair Oaks Ranch (78015) is tight and fast. The median sale price is about $609,160, up roughly 13.9% year over year. Homes are spending around five weeks on the market with ~4.5 months of inventory. In practical terms: there aren’t many listings, well-presented homes move quickly, and precise pricing matters. 📈⏱️

Boerne (78006) is slower and more negotiable. The median price is about $634,900, but homes are taking close to three months to sell with ~6.6 months of inventory. Active listings are up while closed sales are down, which gives buyers more room to ask for concessions, repairs, or a sharper price. Sellers still succeed here, but precision on pricing and presentation is non-negotiable. 🧮

Boerne ISD overall sits between those realities. The district’s median is around $624,500, with ~5.7 months of inventory and ~71 days on market—balanced to slightly buyer-tilted. Within that average, 78015 acts like the fast lane; 78006 is a patient, back-and-forth negotiation. 📊

How We Compare: San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA and Texas

Zoom out to the San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA, and the picture is calmer and broadly balanced: roughly a $310,000 median, modest year-over-year appreciation, ~6 months of inventory, and ~74 days on market. That is a normal range by historical standards.

Statewide (Texas), the story is steady as well: about a $339,900 median, essentially flat year over year, ~5.5 months of inventory, and somewhat quicker market times than our local submarkets. In short, Boerne and Fair Oaks sit well above the metro and state medians—consistent with product mix, schools, and Hill Country amenities. 🔍

Why the Market Has Felt “Sticky” (The Lock-In Effect)

A big driver is mortgage rate “lock-in.” Millions of owners refinanced into 3–4% loans in 2020–2021. Swapping that for a loan in the 6s doesn’t pencil for many would-be downsizers and move-up buyers, so they delay listing. Researchers at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) estimate that each 1-point gap between today’s rate and a borrower’s original rate reduces the probability of sale by roughly 18%, and that lock-in prevented about 1.3–1.7 million U.S. sales since mid-2022. Fewer listings = tighter supply in desirable pockets like 78015. 🔒
FHFA overview

Quick Reference Table (August 2025)

  
      Geography
      Median Price
      YoY
      Closed Sales
      YoY
      Active Listings
      YoY
      Days on Market
      Months Inv.
    

  
      78015 (Fair Oaks area)
      $609,160
      +13.9%
      36
      -7.7%
      150
      -19.8%
      37
      4.5
    

      78006 (Boerne core)
      $634,900
      +10.6%
      65
      -23.5%
      481
      +13.2%
      86
      6.6
    

      Boerne ISD (roll-up)
      $624,500
      +10.2%
      93
      -17.0%
      557
      ≈0.0%
      71
      5.7
    

      SA–New Braunfels MSA
      $310,000
      +1.6%
      2,863
      -5.9%
      16,043
      +17.6%
      74
      5.9
    

      Texas (statewide)
      $339,900
      ≈0.0%
      28,921
      +5.0%
      143,876
      +23.5%
      62
      5.5
    

What the Fed Just Did—and Why Spring 2026 Could Thaw

On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 0.25% and signaled two more cuts are likely this year. Shortly after, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30-year mortgage rate near ~6.26%, the lowest since October 2023. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury more than the Fed directly, but cuts plus cooling inflation typically nudge mortgage rates down over time. 🏦

If rates drift toward the low-6s into late winter, two effects are likely: (1) more locked-in owners finally list, restarting normal move chains; and (2) financed buyer demand firms as payments improve. Expect the thaw to show up first where supply is already tight (78015) and to shorten timelines in 78006, even if it remains more negotiable than its neighbor. 🌱
Freddie Mac PMMS
FOMC materials

Selling Next Spring: What To Do Now

Start early. Vendors book up between January and March, and the best results go to move-in-ready homes that hit the market early in the season. 🧰

Focus on high-ROI basics now: paint touch-ups, carpet clean/replace, lighting refresh, landscape cleanup, and obvious handyman items. Fix known issues before photos so you negotiate on value—not deferred maintenance.

Price to the last 30–60 days of comps, not last year. In 78015, price “on the nose” and be ready to move when the right buyer appears. In 78006, plan for longer timelines and consider targeted concessions (e.g., a 2-1 buydown or modest closing-cost credit) rather than blunt price cuts.

Don’t rely only on local demand—especially at the higher end. A meaningful share of purchases are all-cash (about one-third nationally in 2024), and California→Texas remains a leading migration flow. Marketing beyond Texas taps cash buyers who aren’t rate-sensitive. 🌐

Buyer Guidance

If you’re focused on 78006, expect more options and stronger negotiating room on terms or price. In 78015, well-priced homes move quickly—have approvals ready and be prepared to act decisively. Across the MSA and the state, conditions are broadly balanced, and if rates keep easing, monthly payments improve. 🧭

In closing

While the past few years have often felt bleak, the trend line is bending in the right direction. With the Fed’s recent shift, mortgage costs are easing, the rate-lock effect should gradually thaw, and we’re likely to see steadier demand by spring—especially for well-prepared, well-priced homes. In short: 78015 should stay competitive, 78006 should see shorter timelines, and Boerne ISD overall looks set for a healthier, more balanced season. If you’re weighing a sale or a purchase, the work you do now—repairs, pricing discipline, and smart out-of-state marketing—will put you ahead of that turn. If you’d like a no-pressure strategy session tailored to your timeline, get in touch with me.

Sources & Data Notes

• Local (78015, 78006) and Boerne ISD metrics: Texas REALTORS® MarketViewer, August 2025.
• San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA and Texas metrics: Texas REALTORS® MarketViewer, August 2025.
• Rate context: Federal Reserve (Sept 17, 2025 FOMC) and Freddie Mac PMMS.
• Lock-in effect: FHFA research on mortgage rate dispersion and homeowner mobility.
• Migration and cash context: Texas REALTORS® Relocation Report; national cash-share trends (2024).