A Clearer Look at Today’s Real Estate Market in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch
Over the past few weeks, I’ve received a number of messages from local homeowners in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch thanking me for the information I’ve previously shared—and asking for more insights into what’s really happening in our local real estate market. This post is a direct response to those requests.
While it’s easy to get lost in national headlines or broad economic forecasts, the truth is, real estate is always local. Below is a data-driven look at the actual conditions in the Boerne ISD area, including Fair Oaks Ranch, as of mid-May 2025.
🏘 The Buying Pattern: A Concerning Departure from Seasonal Norms
What is typically the onset of top yearly homebuying season is turning out to be a dud.
Typically, the spring season marks the start of a strong selling cycle. In most years, housing activity begins ramping up in March, accelerating through April, May, and into the summer months. But this year, we’re seeing something very different.
Instead of an increase, home sales have declined steadily since January, with just 10 closings in May—a drastic drop compared to the 63 closings we saw in December. That’s not just a seasonal fluctuation. It’s a sign that the market has hit an unusual and sobering slowdown.
Adding to the challenge: home builders are ramping up inventory and aggressively cutting prices, essentially erasing the traditional “new home premium.” They're also offering mortgage rates well below what buyers can get on the resale market—in some cases subsidizing rates into the 4% range. That’s a massive competitive advantage that sellers of existing homes simply don’t have.
What this means for sellers:
If you're trying to compete with builders by simply lowering your price, it may not be enough. The smart move is to identify and directly market to cash buyers, particularly those relocating from out of state—most notably California. These buyers often have significant equity, aren't affected by interest rates, and are motivated to close quickly.
💰 Pricing Reality: What the Market Will Bear
This scatter plot compares closed property prices against square footage from February 20 to May 15, 2025. The red line represents the current fair market value.
Key takeaway:
Buyers are still willing to pay—but only for homes priced correctly for their size and condition. Homes priced even slightly above the red trendline tend to linger, eventually facing price cuts.
In today's market, pricing isn't just about comps—it's about positioning your home as the best value for cash buyers who have choices.
📊 The Odds of Selling: Only 2 in 3 Homes Are Selling
Looking at the Boerne ISD area over the past 12 months:
514 homes sold
220 homes failed to sell
That’s a 67% success rate
In 2025 so far:
134 homes closed
46 did not
That leaves a 65% chance of selling
What this means:
Roughly 1 in 3 homes are not selling. In this kind of market, strategy is everything. And the most effective strategy? Again—targeting cash buyers, particularly those moving from high-equity markets like California where buying with cash in Texas is both feasible and attractive.
⏳ How Long Is It Taking to Sell?
The average time to close a home in the Boerne ISD area is now 190 days—over six months. The average sold price: $654,948.
What’s slowing things down?
Overpricing
High interest rates
Strong competition from builders
Buyer hesitation
Homes priced and marketed toward cash buyers—not reliant on financing—are less likely to face these delays.
📍 Final Thoughts
This is a tough market—but not an impossible one. What it demands is precision: the right pricing, the right marketing, and the right buyer pool.
If you're thinking about selling, targeting cash buyers from out of state is your most reliable path forward. These are individuals who aren't scared off by interest rates and are often searching for homes just like yours—but only if they know about it.
If you’d like to explore what that kind of strategy could look like for your home, I’m happy to talk—no pressure, just real data and thoughtful options.
📞 (408) 827-8484
📧 Bill@HillCountryHomesteads.com
🌐 www.hillcountryhomesteads.com
